'Afghanistan worse than Vietnam'
Fascinating post at FP's AfPak channel today, comparing Afghanistan with Vietnam, elections and all.
Not favorably for Obama's policy in Afghanistan, it has to be said. The headline said it all: "Saigon 2009."
The authors are:
- Thomas H. Johnson [who] is a research professor of the Department of National Security Affairs and director of the Program for Culture and Conflict Studies at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, [and] M. Chris Mason [who] is a retired Foreign Service officer who served in 2005 as political officer for the PRT in Paktika and presently is a senior fellow at the Program for Culture and Conflict Studies and at the Center for Advanced Defense Studies in Washington, D.C.
Here's their bottom line:
- For those who say that comparing the current war in Afghanistan to the Vietnam War is taking things too far, here's a reality check: It's not taking things far enough. From the origins of these North-South conflicts to the role of insurgents and the pointlessness of this week's Afghan presidential elections, it's impossible to ignore the similarities between these wars. The places and faces may have changed but the enemy is old and familiar. The sooner the United States recognizes this, the sooner it can stop making the same mistakes in Afghanistan.
... It doesn't matter who wins the August elections for president in Afghanistan: he will be illegitimate because he is elected. We have apparently learned nothing from Vietnam.
Actually I thought the main factor missing from Johnson and Mason's piece is that the NVA did have modern heavy weapons and powerful outside support, while the Afghans do not.
It would be interesting to find out how much financial aid is really getting to the Taliban. It doesn't look that much. If it were, they would have been able to buy a few Stingers on the black market.
It is worth discussing, but not as an accounting exercise or as an our-hardware-is-bigger-than-their-hardware exercise. The crucial factor is morale. The Afghanis will always know why they are fighting but the British, US, Canadians and others will not know why they are fighting and dying. Therefore the Afghanis will win and the others will lose.