IPS piece on Egypt's diplo challenges
I had a new piece up on IPS yesterday, titled " Pressure Mounts on Egypt to Deliver Results". You can find it on IPS here and on my analysis-archive here.
I'll confess I got two small items of fact wrong in the first edition of the piece-- the one I sent to IPS. The number of Hamas pols captured by Israel in the West Bank Thursday was reportedly ten, not 20 as I'd written. And it was presumptive incoming Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman, not incoming PM Netanyahu, who said not long ago that Egypt could "go to hell."
I have tried to have these corrections made on the IPS site but it hasn't happened yet. Hopefully soon. I have made them in my own archived version of the piece.
They do not alter the analysis in any substantial way. Egypt is under pressure from the Palestinians and many other Arabs for its failure to deliver agreements on any of the three negtiations it is currently running, as well as for its continued collaboration with Israel's project to maintain the tight siege around Gaza.
In the western MSM, the discourse about Middle East regional politics is still completely dominated by the Iran issue; the policies of regional actors are dissected endlessly for whether these actors are "for" or "against" the US-Israeli campaign against Iran. Shorthand for this is the dyad of terms "moderate" and "extremist."
However, the vast majority of citizens-- and quite a few governments-- in the Arab world do not see things in these terms. Indeed, they do not consider Iran to be the main threat/challenge that their region faces. They are more concerned about Israel's coercive power in the region, and in particular its manifestation with regard to the Palestinian issue.
In addition, there is a whole rich history of inter-Arab dealings that has almost nothing to do with the "moderates/extremists" frame into which US commentators like to squeeze the politics of the entire region.
I tried to capture the "Egypt" aspect of this regional dynamic in the IPS piece. Mubarak really is sitting on a hot potato in these negotiations-- and he seems, crucially, to be getting little support in his diplomatic efforts from anyone in Washington.
This gem maybe good enough to use in the tombstone, the facts were wrong but the substance wasn't...
Vintage Helena.
Titus, when I make mistakes I acknowledge them and assess their effect on the broader analysis. And you?
The analytically important aspect of the facts remains the same. Israel did capture additional Hamas pols in the West Bank, including elected legislators, in a completely illegal (and actually escalatory) act of hostage-taking. The numbers were different. The Egyptian government does have reason to be very wary indeed of the arrival of Israel's new government; the probable appointment of Lieberman, with his well-known record of anti-Arab racism, to the foreign ministry is of particular concern.
"...Contrary to reports indicating Suleiman was urging Washington to soften its position, U.S. officials say, the Egyptian intelligence chief urged the opposite."
"“What might be going on,” he added, is that “Fatah and Suleiman are using the Americans to torpedo [unity] talks without getting blamed themselves.” He said the parties may not want the unity talks to visibly collapse before, or be the dominant issue at, the Arab League summit scheduled to take place later this month in Doha, Qatar."
eh, heh, remember this when Helena posts on the failure of the unity government talks
I read Laura Rozen's post on Suleiman's visit to Washington, linked to above. It's a complete mishmash of different quotes about the interactions Suleiman had during his visit, attributed to a range of possibly distinct--though all completely anonymous-- people variously described as "Middle East hand", "think-tank-based expert", "former CIA official", etc. Well, they may all have been one and the same person for all we know. Laura writes nothing that indicates that any of these anonymous sources really know what went on in Suleiman's talks with administration officials, which is not surprising given that the Obama administration has been notably tight-lipped on all matters to do with Israel and the Palestinians.
Not the finest hour of her reporting career.
s'okay Helena, we all know it will be Obama's fault when the unity talks breakdown.