Brzezinski & Scowcroft: Transcript & comment
I see CSIS has now published the entire transcript of Tuesday's panel discussion with Brzezinski, Scowcroft, and Ignatius. You can access that-- or the audio or even video records of the event-- here.
It makes my work of taking notes and then uploading them here yesterday a little redundant. Oh well, I should ask next time if the organizers of any event are planning to post a transcript, and I should have guessed that rich old CSIS would have the resources to do so.
I think the most politically relevant aspect of the event was the intensity with which both those former National Security Advisers, Brzezinski and Scowcroft, warned against the consequences of any attack (= act of war) against Iran-- and also, against the over-militarization of the approach being followed by the Bushists.
The considerations that David Ignatius raised about the timing of Washington undertaking a serious commitment to resolving the issue through diplomacy were interesting-- though I agree strongly with what Scowcroft said about the administration's continuation of its still-hard line being more likely to strengthen Ahmadinejad in Iran's elections next March than would a more determined turn-- by Bush-- to real exploration of the diplomatic options.
The warnings Scowcroft issued about the political effects of the administration's still-harsh rhetoric against Iran-- in terms of continuing to legitimize and "normalize" the idea of attacking Iran as a possibly viable option-- were also important.
I found Brzezinski's quick analysis of the political dynamics within the 5+1 group very thought-provoking-- as too, his judgment that sometime earlier this year China had become much more seriously engaged in the Iran-related diplomacy than hitherto.
This is significant because it signals China's entry in a new way into the power dynamics of the Middle East region-- a development that could well have ramifications elsewhere in the region.
As I noted here yesterday, I still do not see the signs I need to see, that the administration has definitively backed off from its longstanding pursuit of regime change in Tehran. To me, that is an essential first step in any real turn toward use of diplomacy with Iran.
Is there any evidence that Obama has consulted with Brzeinski or Scowcroft or with anyone sharing their outlook on the middle east situation ?
Yup, Zbig has definitely talked to him a # of times but says he prefers not to be listed formally as an advisor-- in order to retain his freedom to continue to say things that might be controversial..