'Just World News' with Helena Cobban

Congratulations, Lebanon!

My very best wishes to my Lebanese friends (and relatives), whose parliamentarians today succeeded in electing a president, former army commander Michel Suleiman, and in resolving the country's other immediately outstanding issues of governance-- all in a single session.

The session was attended by the Emir and Prime Minister/Foreign Minister of Qatar, who last week played a very constructive role mediating (and no doubt also financially "lubricating") the political agreement among the major Lebanese political movements that lay behind today's election. The foreign ministers of Egypt, Syria, and Iran were also there, along with the Secretary-General of the Arab League. (The significance of Syria's foreign minister being there should be noted.)

Parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a stalwart of the pro-Hizbullah bloc, made a speech recognizing the contribution of many outside powers that, he said, had contributed to the Doha reconciliation. Here's how he also took a side-swipe at the Bush administration:

Berri... thanked various countries, including Qatar, Iran, Turkey, Russia, France, Italy, Spain as well as the Arab League for their help in bringing an end to Lebanon's 18-month old political crisis.

"I thank the United States nonetheless, seeing that it seems to have been convinced that Lebanon is not the appropriate place for its New Middle East plan," Berri said.

"This plan will not find any place in the entire Middle East," he added. He was referring to comments made by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who said while on a visit to Beirut during Israel's war on Lebanon in summer 2006 that the war was part of "birth pangs of the New Middle East."

"This is a historic moment," Berri said, while introducing the president. "I ask God to help you succeed in steering the Lebanese ship to a safe haven ... today no one in the world can turn Lebanon into a fighting arena."

Berri was also at pains to point out two other significant anniversaries that fall on this date:

"May 25 happens to be the eighth anniversary of the victory of our heroic resistance and the withdrawal of the Israeli army from most of Lebanon's territory expect for the Shebaa Farms and the Kafar Shuba Hills," Berri said. [Btw, you can read Hizbullah's own breathless retelling of the epic of those days, here.]

"It also happens to be the fist anniversary of the victory of our army against terrorism in Nahr al-Bared," [Berri] added, referring to last year's clashes between the army and Islamist militants at a Palestinian refugee camp in the North of the country.

That great, round-up-style Daily Star story linked to above tells us that in his inaugural address Suleiman,

expressed his belief that Lebanon should "respect all United Nations decisions" and stressed the importance of following through with "the international tribunal pertaining to the assassination of [former Prime Minister] Rafik Hariri."

... The new president said a strong defense strategy is "necessitated by Israeli aggression," calling for a composed dialogue aimed at creating such a strategy, which he said should "utilize the capabilities of the resistance."

Suleiman added that Lebanese-Syrian relations should be "brotherly," with mutual respect for the "boundaries of each sovereign country."

Suleiman also argued that "the Palestinian struggle cannot be used as a pretext" for terrorism and that "the gun should never be aimed inward, but should always point toward our enemies."

On balance I think this outcome so far looks positive and hopeful, though-- like As'ad Abu Khalil and others-- I have many continuing concerns that the Doha Agreement has most likely entrenched the role that sectarian affiliations play in Lebanon's politics.

On the other hand, it's not as if there are many particularly compelling and well-organized non- or anti-sectarian political movements active in Lebanon today.... So you kind of have to deal with what you've got. And some of these sect-based political movements do certainly have a national(ist) dimension to their worldview and have shown themselves to be fairly flexible and broad-minded actors within the national political scene. And yes, that description fits Hizbullah as well as its main current ally in the Christian camp, the Free Patriotic Movement, with the FPM probably being one of the most actively anti-sectarian movements in Lebanon today..

At its core, the Doha Agreement allows a governing formula for Lebanon that adequately represents the balance of power at both the domestic and the regional level. That's why it has a good chance of sticking, and Lebanon now has a good chance of moving away from the abyss of all-out internal armed conflict it was staring right into just two two weeks ago to a situation in which the country's many very pressing social and economic challenges can now-- I hope!-- start to be rationally addressed in a climate of broad, if not yet perfect, public security.

At both the domestic and regional levels, the current balance really is one of (to quote the well-worn old Lebanese slogan) "No victor, no vanquished." At the regional level-- to which Lebanon by its very nature is as always so terribly vulnerable-- the situation is one in which the pro-US forces and the anti-US forces are facing off against each other, just about equally balanced for now. Though trending over time against US unilateralism.

So we should all be very glad that the long-stressed people of Lebanon now have a hope of sitting out the next few years in a situation of some governance, perhaps even some faintly accountable and helpful governance. The Shihabist era of the latest 1950s comes to mind...

Quick addendum, Monday a.m.:

Shihab era: Not great on accountability; horrible for the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon; but pretty good on delivery of basic services to Lebanese citizens. Let's hope Pres. Suleiman can do much better than Shihab on those first two items. Delivery of basic services, meanwhile, depends on him being able to (re-)build a strong, functioning corps of government administrators. Not sure if this is possible on a basis of continuing sect-based divvying-up of posts? Can he transform the civil service into a truly meritocratic system? Let's hope so.