Gaza bust-out: Past plans and future prospects
This report from the London Times's James Hider strongly indicates that the demolition of vast long stretches of the wall between Gaza and Egypt had been long planned by Gaza's present Hamas rulers. Hider writes-- and the accompanying photo also indicates-- that,
- a Hamas border guard interviewed by The Times at the border today admitted that the Islamist group... had been involved for months in slicing through the heavy metal wall using oxy-acetylene cutting torches.
That meant that when the explosive charges were set off in 17 different locations after midnight last night the 40ft wall came tumbling down, leaving it lying like a broken concertina down the middle of no-man's land as an estimated 350,000 Gazans flooded into Egypt.
Hider also writes:
- As Gazans flooded into Egypt, the strip's Hamas prime minister, Ismail Haniya, called for an urgent meeting with his rivals in Fatah and with the Egyptian authorities to work a new border arrangement.
Mr Haniya called for the border crossing to be reopened "on the basis of national participation," meaning that Hamas would be prepared to cede some control to President Abbas and his Fatah-led government in the West Bank. "We don’t want to be the only ones in control of these matters," Mr Haniyeh said, speaking from his Gaza City office live on Hamas TV.
Here is a Reuters report of the conference's first day.
The Hamas people argue that their actions are not aimed at undermining Palestinian national unity. But very evidently the big bust-out from Gaza is a major embarrassment to PA president Mahmoud Abbas, who has so far had little or nothing to show for his insistence on pursuing the Palestinians' grievances only through the US-sponsored peace talks with Israel. Abbas has been able to do little but sit idly by, voicing occasional and unheeded protests, while Israel tightened its siege around Gaza over recent weeks.
I spent the past few days in Beirut. (I got back to the US yesterday.) It strikes me that Hamas's opening of Gaza's wall with Egypt could make the situation between Egypt and Israel somewhat analogous to that between Lebanon and Israel?
Recall also the plans Gaza's Hamas leaders have long talked about their hope of reconnecting Gaza to the outside world through Egypt rather than through Israel, as I wrote about here and here and elsewhere.
What is clear already is that the Gaza bust-out has considerably upped the political stakes for Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak. His regime's survival may now be at stake.
Who can reimpose order on the Gaza-Egypt situation? Israel? I doubt it. Egypt? Very risky indeed. Fateh without coordinating with Hamas? Impossible. A hastily assembled NATO peacekeeping force? Forget about it...
This is, it strikes me, Hamas's bid to become included in the decisionmaking order. I truly don't see any resolution to the present situation without Hamas being a party to it.
This story will continue to be big.