Iraqi poll's bad news for Jaafari


Posted by Helena Cobban
August 12, 2005 3:56 PM EST | Link
Filed in Iraq

[Version edited for clarity here...]

An Iraqi NGO called the Tammuz ("July") Foundation for Social Development has just completed an opinion poll of 265 citizens in four neighborhoods of Baghdad. The results are very shocking for the US-backed government led by Dr. Ibrahim Jaafari.

Respondents were asked: "How do you evaluate the government of Dr. Ibrahim Jaafari in the following [five] main fields?" The answers were that respondents answered "bad" in the five categories covered, as follows:

    Security and combating terrorism-- 67%
    Combating Corruption-- 74%          
    Resolving the problem of electricity-- 90%
    Resolving the problem of unemployment-- 77%
    imetable for withdrawal of the multinational forces-- 68%
The neighborhoods where the poll was conducted were listed as Zayouna, al-Shaab, al-Talibiya, and al-Thawra (al-Sadr). I don't know enough about the political geography of Baghdad to tell how "representative" these areas of the capital are of the national population as a whole. The only one I know a little about is Sadr City...

But still, these results have to be deeply worrying for Jaafari-- and for the US government that's been backing him.



Comments
Comment from... Squeaky, at August 12, 2005 04:29 PM:

BTW all of the percentages mentioned above are in the BAD category, as is obvious by Helena's comment on the poll.

Comment from... Salah, at August 12, 2005 05:13 PM:

I don't know enough about the political geography of Baghdad to tell how ‎‎"representative" these areas of the capital are of the national population as a whole. ‎The only one I know a little about is Sadr City...
‎
The neighbourhoods where the poll was conducted were listed as ‎

‎1.‎ Zayouna, in the East of Baghdad, most are high-mid class residents
‎2.‎ al-Shaab, East-North Baghdad, mainly lower mid-class resident mostly Shii’a
‎3.‎ al-Talibiya, East- Baghdad, I can say its extend to Thawra, these the people ‎got educated and jobs like military officers originally born and their family ‎from Thawra
‎4.‎ Al-Thawra (al-Sadr).its residential area (5 million), mostly poor and low-class ‎resident crowded. Mainly shii’a (95% )‎

in these areas the shii’s are the higher number but for Zayouna area you find more suni ‎and Christians.‎

Comment from... Christiane, at August 12, 2005 05:20 PM:

And these results were obtained despite very tendencious (pro-government) questions. Usually opinion polls using a five grades scale have symetrical catogories, like :
Bad, rather bad, satisfying, rather good, good. But in this case the possible answers were : bad, rather good, good, very good, excellent.

Given the chaotic situation probably that any government would do very poorly. The structure of the sample is probably not reflecting the population : there are only 5% of housewifes, 7% of unemployed, but 12% of students, 37% of 18-19 years old and 38% of academicians, but only 8% who didn't go further than the primary level.

Anyway, the results are so clear that a more representative sample won't probably change the general results.

Comment from... Helena, at August 12, 2005 11:24 PM:

Squeaky-- thanks so much for explaining what the (earlier version of) the post meant... I was rushing to edit it in a hurry and having problems dealing with some of the Arabic-language coding that I'd imported in from the PDF file there...

Salah-- thank YOU so much for your description of the four neighborhoods...

Comment from... Salah, at August 14, 2005 02:17 AM:

Iraqi Sunnis Battle To Defend Shiites
Tribes Defy an Attempt by Zarqawi To Drive Residents From Western City

"Iraqi Sunni Muslims in Ramadi fought with grenade launchers and automatic weapons Saturday to defend their Shiite neighbors against a bid to drive them from the western city, Sunni leaders and Shiite residents said. The fighting came as the U.S. military announced the deaths of six American soldiers."


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/13/AR2005081301209.html

Comment from... Salah, at August 14, 2005 02:30 AM:

"He presented a written, U.S.-backed approach to unresolved questions such as the role of Islam in determining law and the degree of autonomy to grant regional governments, several committee members said"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/12/AR2005081201520.html

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