Oldtimer's view from Beirut
A friend from Beirut who wishes to be identified simply as "Oldtimer" sent me the following:
Just finished your good piece in CSM. It is good to see that you are somewhat optimistic on what appears to be a remarkable change in Lebanese politics, especially the breaking down of the taboo of criticising Syria. I hope it works and more than that, hope it will
continue. I am not so sure.
We are sorely lacking wise and charismatic leadership on the street and the strain is showing. We have Christian youth who have made the issue one of Geagea or Aoun. We have hardnosed Phalangists who want to open the case of slain president-elect Bashir Gemayel. We have Sunnis divided in themselves now totally rudderless. Anything close to a leader we had Walid who has been mobilizing a large segment of the Druze, but with his sectarian restraints, he has now taken refuge in Mouktara, having "seen the light." Worse, Shiites have not been brought in and some seem to have decided to coopt them by insults. Very wrong and fool-hardy.
Of course there are vast numbers of truly patriotic, angry, well-meaning Lebanese who are about to be fed up with the unorganized nature of the opposition. If these people give up, then we can forget the sea of change in Lebanese politics.
Did you hear that Patriarch Sfeir threatened to leave the opposition if they persisted with their calls of PEACEFUL INTIFADA? We need more of such a realistic and cool-headed approach.
I suppose the term SNAFU was a Lebanese creation.
I read a story late last night about how violent people are involved with the demonstrations in Lebanon. There were pictures of people carry guns there in the demonstrations.
The main point of the story is that Lebanon is not the Ukraine. There are fractions that want to see a war/violence really get started.
I for one am still hopeful. Ukraine was good but Lebanon would be amazing. This, not American invasion, is the real hope of democracy in the Middle East. I just hope the press doesn't buy the administration line that this is happening because of 'Iraq. If anything it's happening in spite of that. Last night George declared 'Freedom is on the march.' He's right, but Lebanon is the first step, not the second. Perhaps the Syrian occupation has not resulted in political paralysis, preserving the old violence in stasis, but instead has allowed a secure transition from Cold War sanctioned violence to the post-Soviet possibilities of participatory democracy. And now it is time to go. Perhaps enough people have grown fat during the relative stability to disdain the disruptions of renewed violence. Perhaps. I need to think that with all the unalloyed darkness these days there is one new shining, stirring, promise to bring us hope.
I realize it may seem contradictory to say that maybe Syrian invasion somehow helped but that American invasion cannot. But the Syrian invasion had ample local support and the force to actually provide security. And it took a very, very long time. I generally like Jumblatt but I do find it interesting that he and George W Bush are now condemning an occupation that he and George HW Bush made possible.
Helena you're such a [snip]
Hi all. I'm going to leave Geoff's "comment" up there because it really is a good example of one end of the spectrum of the way that some really sad, sick people react to things that i say and write. But I don't want this gibberish and hatred to pollute my site any more, so like all the equally pornographic spambot things that get onto the site, I've banned this person's IP.
TGG, you have some interesting thoughts. It was actually with Pres. Gerald Ford's blessing that the Syrians first went into Lebanon in '76. It was with an effective "green light" from reagan that the Israelis went in in 1982. The Syrian entry was never deemed by the UN to be illegal because it was as part of an "Arab Peacekeeping Force". Israel's entry was immediately decried by the UN which called in 1982 for an immediate and unconditional Israeli withdrawal.
That took the Israelis 18 years to effect. US aid continued to flow generously to Israel all along.
The UNSC started calling for a Syrian withdrawal last September. It doesn't look as though the US plans to give them 18 years to comply, does it?
I wasn't referring to the 'original' intervention so much as the 1990 quid pro quo whereby Syria helped us in 'Iraq and we looked the other way as they seized overt and total control. Of course Lebanon's full of ironies and about-faces, not the least of which is Isael's alliance with the National Socialists of the Phalange. Next to that the American flip-flopping and mixed messages seem positively straightforward.
I was not, and still am not, inclined to see Israel behind Hariri's murder but the sheer glee with which Bush and Sharon have since blamed Syria for every subsequent unpleasantness, diplomatic snag, and speed bump makes me extremely uneasy. No doubt the intended effect if not the intended target.
Helena, why not remove "Geoff"'s comment? I think most of us know you get hate mail, and we can imagine what it's like. Does iot help your blog to leave it on display?
Thanks, NoPref, you're right... leaving those kinds of words up there just attracts the yucky pornographic spam. I snipped 'em.