Election news- Palestine
Election plans for both Palestine and Iraq are in the news. In Iraq, they are being planned with a view to the possible withdrawal of the occupation forces-- certainly, a total withdrawal is what the vast majority of Iraqis want to see ensue after them.
In Palestine, it is less clear what will ensue from the elections scheduled for January 9. Clearly, the consensus among Palestinians for a total withdrawal of the forces occupying their country is even stronger than the consensus among Iraqis in that regard. But the Israelis are not about to simply do that, election or no election.
Here, by the way, is the column I had in Monday's CSM on the Palestinian election issue. I argue there that the "diaspora" Palestinians-- that is, those millions of Palestinian refugees whom Israel still prevents from returning even to the area of the future Palestinian state-- should be represented in the upcoming elections...
I have to say that, regrettably, it ain't going to happen. Well, not this time, anyway.
Many, many contacts are going on now in preparation for the Palestinian elections, which are solely for the position of 'chairman' (or 'president') of the Oslo-decreed 'Palestinian authority'. Which doesn't actually have much, if any, real authority. But will be heading the negotiations with the Israelis from here on out.
Each of the major Palestinian groups/blocs will be presenting its candidate, and several 'independents' have announced their candidacy too. There's a possibility that Fateh will nominate Marwan Barghouthi, who's in jail in Israel serving five life terms. He could then become a Mandela-like icon figure. Interesting...
Update: They ended up choosing Abu Mazen... However, Marwan's cousin Dr Mustapha Barghouthi is mentioned as a possibility for the "leftist" candidate...
The Islamists (Hamas, Jihad) say they won't participate in this election because of its connection with Oslo, which they always opposed. They and the leftist parties are calling for simultaneous or rapid legislative council and municipal elections.
Interestingly, though, Abu Mazen and Co-- the leaders for now of Fateh, the PA, and the PLO's wing inside the occupied territories-- are making serious efforts to coordinate their positions with the political forces in the Palestinian diaspora and with important Palestinian "host countries" like Jordan and Syria. All these are possibilities that have been opened up by Arafat's death, since he had succeeded in pissing off just about all those other important players.
Abu Mazen and Abu Ala are expected here in Syria in the near future, which will mark a real political change on both sides. Interesting if Syria and the Palestinian leadership find a way to coordinate their diplomatic position again-- coordination which was notably broken when Arafat concluded the bilateral Oslo peace accord with Israel in 1993... Which as we know got him very little and his people even less. Indeed the number of Israeli settlers in the occupied territories doubled in the 7 years after Oslo.
I think his strategic "mistake", from the Palestinian point of view, was to get dragged into niggling little negotiations over a lengthy series of always "interim" measures, while allowing Israel and the US to renege completely on all the deadlines for negotiating the final status. But boy, did he ever love the international attention he got throughout that whole process...
Notable: how quickly Sharon's government caved on the issue of the East Jerusalemites being allowed to participate in the Palestinian election, once the Bush administration made clear its preferences on this point ....
How about the Bushies make equally clear their insistence on a real end to all new Israeli investment in the quite illegal settlement-building project??? I hold my breath...
Anyway, interesting times in Palestinian politics. As in Iraqi politics, too. If Bombs-Away Don and his buddies leave any space clear at all in occupied Iraq for "politics", that is.
Sharon was never against East Jerusalem participating in the election - Silvan Shalom spoke against it at a ministerial meeting, and Sharon overruled him on the ground that EJ had voted in 1996. The issue was settled within a day of Arafat's announced death, and I suspect the debate was mostly for show.
And, well, neither side was scrupulous about honoring its Oslo commitments. Give blame to Israel where it's due, certainly, but the Palestinians weren't exactly passive participants in creating the current mess.
Is the Arafat's poisoning saga over, or will it have an effect on the Palestinian election outcome?
The French were eager to settle the issue by giving the files to any relative willing to make them public.
1) Arafat is being called a Martir even though he died of natural causes.
2) The nephew refuses to rule out poisoning because one cannot know about unknown poisons.
3) Suha sues the French for revealing the secret. Where is her gratitude for daily blood transfusions and Chirac's bedside visits?
4) With the secret out, the only French remedy to Suha is now monetary. With a weak dollar her $22M a year may fall short of her expenses in Paris.
(BTW, what is the Present Value of $22M a year? That should be a lower bound of what Arafat stashed away).
Just a taste of Middle Eastern logic, well I guess logic was developed further north in Greece, not in Palestine.
David