Headline: A political-sectarian split in Iraq 100 days before the elections; The Shiites threaten anyone who abstains from voting with the fire of "hell" and the Sunnis see voting under the shadow of occupation as "a sin"
Baghdad-- al-Hayat, AFP, Reuters-- With the approach of the date of the Iraqi elections, which has been determined to be 100 days hence, the Friday sermons in the mosques of Iraq yesterday displayed a sharp split between Iraqis concerning them, along political and sectarian lines. At the same time that the sermons of the Shiite imams showed an enthusiasm for participation that reached the degree of threatening anyone who abstains from voting with "entry into hell", the sermons of the Sunnis were divided between those who called for a boycott because the voting under the shadow of occupation is "sinful" and those who urged a "negotiating" position [that urges participation in] voting in return for conditions, among them removing from the city of Fallujah the military option.
Al-Sayyed Ahmad al-Safi, the representative of the Shiite ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, laid stress in the Friday sermon in the shrine of Imam Hussein in Karbala on "obligatory participation" in the elections and he said, "He who contravenes that will go to hell." He confirmed that, "We must take responsibility and participate in an obligatory way because this is a national duty, and not taking part would signify treason against the right of the nation." And Safi added that, "Participation has an obligation based in religious law because the transgressor will enter hell." He clarified that, "The topic of the elections represents something truly significant for Iraqis in terms of following their destiny." He continued, "We must get ready to prepare ourselves to participate strongly in them in order to realize the hopes whose realization we've been awaiting a long time," without spelling out what these hopes were...
He denied, "The things some information media have mentioned" about the marja'iya's preparation of a unified list [I think that means, of its own unified list -HC] "because that is not true. The marja'iya guards its paternal relationship to the whole society ... and we are undertaking efforts to arrive at a unified list comprising exceptional personalities."The article concludes (my precis here) by reporting on the demands voiced by the representatives of Fallujah that they be allowed (once again) to have units of the police and national guard formed only of people from the city itself take over responsibility for it, and an end to the bombing, etc. But the minister of state for national security affairs, Qasem Daoud told Hayat that the people of Fallujah are part of the Iraqi people and we can't get into partitioning-type ideas. He seemed to accuse the people who were speaking for Fallujah of being under the thrall of "foreign terrorists" when they made their demands, and repeated that the government was resorting to violence against Fallujah only as a very last resort...
Ten days ago, Sistani called on citizens to register their names in the election registers on which the work [of assembling them] will start at the beginning of next month. He said in a fatwa, "It's a duty for all citizens entitled to vote--males and females--to make sure that their names are correctly registered on the voting rolls." And the Shi-i marja laid stress, either directly or through those close to him, on the holding of the elections on the decreed date at the end of January.
As for Shaikh Sadruddin al-Qabanji [Shi-ite--HC], he called in his sermon in Najaf on "The people of Fallujah to take a good example from Najaf and Samara on how to end their pain, so they can get themselves out of it and prepare themselves for the elections." He added, "We call on the (Sunni) Association of Muslim Scholars which is still undecided to participate in the election process and to avoid isolation ... And we Shiites seek an Iraq for all ... Not participating means that the occupation stays and the chaos continues."
On the other hand, Shaikh Mahdi al-Smaida'i [Sunni], the imam and preacher of the Ibn Taimiya mosque in Baghdad said, "The elections will not happen without the departure of the occupier even if in stages. And any candidate in the elections should be people of authentic muslim Iraqi nationality, and the only voters should be from the people of Iraq." He added, "Without those conditions fulfilled, anyone who enters the elections is considered sinful."
But the Sunni "Iraqi Islamic Party" which is participating in the provisional government under the leadership of Ayad Allawi distributed a short flier in Sunni mosques that called that, "Muslims should participate in the elections to nominate and elect people they trust, people who have pure, clean hands who seek the good of this country." And the flier concluded by saying, "Islam and Iraq are entrusted to your embrace, and do not let them fall from it."
Meanwhile, Sunni men of religion, and especially the "Association of Muslim Scholars" are trying to link th issue of the "political participation" of the Sunni sect in the Iraqi elections with the "battle" of Falljujah and the official spokesman of the AMS Shaikh Muhammad Bashar al-Fidi said yesterday, "If the destruction of the city occurs, and the air and artillery attacks continue, then we are committed, with the ulema (muslim scholars) of Iraq to the position in which we call for boycotting the elections and judging their results invalid. He added, "But if the bombing of the city and its destruction stops, and if the bombardment of other cities stops -- in that case we would return to another position."
A meeting that the Sunni community held on Wednesday, with the participation of a great number of men of religion, called for boycotting the elections if Fallujah is confronted with a military operation. And those at the meeting judged that, "Holding elections in the midst of the destruction of cities is rejected, and people of good morals call on the sons of the Iraqi people as a whole, should Fallujah undergo destruction and continue to be bombed from aircraft and artillery, or if other cities should suffer this, to boycott the elections and consider the results invalid."
"Some people have questioned whether the Americans in fact want to see the elections be successful in Iraq"
IMO, to answer this question one has to define what were the (told or untold) goals of the US in this war. It's difficult because different people had different goals. I think that the main goal was a geostrategic one : US wanted to move its military bases from Saudi Arabia elsewhere in ME; she wanted to secure her influence in this oil rich region. She wanted to reshape the ME maps of influences.
Iraqi elections are secondary to these goals. The best outcome for US would be the successful election of a US friendly governement. But if chaos prevents successful election, then this would allow US to maintain her military forces there anyway (although it would cost more to the US taxpayers). It would be more problematic if Iraqi elections are successful but the new elected government wants to throw the US troops out (which seems more likely). Well I don't think that a new Iraqi governement would be able to push the US out : the US will exert much economic pressure on the new Iraqi goverment and in the end, the new government would be forced to compromise anyway. So whatever the success and the outcome of the Iraqi election, it will be a win/win situation of the US, although some of these situations could be more expansive in terms of financial and human ressources (aka death toll).
I think a lose/lose situation for the US is closer to the facts. Where is the progress on the ground? It's all been retreat.
Posted by: sm at October 24, 2004 11:21 AMsm,
You are right ;-) that the US is not winning anything presently. I wasn't making a judgement on the present and actual situation. I was trying to put myself in the shoes of those who are in command right now and whether they want successful Iraqis elections or not. If like I suppose the Bushies' goal is to keep US troops in Iraq indefinitely, then they can force that, whether Iraqi elections are a success or not.
When the Bushies declared war, they pretended the invasion would be a cakewalk. That was just in order to achieve their goal, to launch that war. Now that the war is launched, things can't be undone. At least not yet. So even if Kerry is elected, he will have to "continue the job" (the US opinion isn't ready to swallow a defeat right now). US will loose in the end, but it may take decades. Whether Iraqis elections are successfull or not won't change much to the goals, the objectives (strategic dominance in the ME); it may change the cost of war in term of human lives and in financial terms and in sufferings for the iraqi, alas.
May be the US elections could change something, if Kerry really puts a clear time table to withdraw troops and holds to it. But then, that would be a fundamental change in the US goals.
I agree with what Christiane has expressed with succint clarity regarding the main and original goal. Her angle is particularly interesting to the extent that it redefines what success is, from the US point of view.
I wonder if it may also redefine what a rational course of action is for the Iraquis?
E. Bilpe
Posted by: E. Bilpe at October 25, 2004 03:11 AMI would suggest that the US ideologues are arguing like this : surely, they say, those who genuinely understand the 'freedom' of 'democracy', both among aspiring politicians ('leaders' in the paternalist jargon) and among potential voters ('supporters', ditto), will also understand that Milord Bremer's 100 legislative enactments placing all the country's productive resources under American ownership are irreversible steps on the road to 'freedom' (i.e., the road to not getting permanently subjected to martial law and a US-sponsored police state. If and only if they have 'internalised' this will they be 'ready for freedom'.
All this is obscured by the ethno-religious imbalance, which is so useful to the occupier that it will certainly not be allowed to heal.
As long as half the observers think that Zarqawi is a CIA surrogate and the other half think that SCIRI is, healing seems unlikely anyway.