Climbing down in Iraq?
I'm just praying that the ceasefire reportedly agreed on for Fallujah sticks, and that it's the harbinger of a serious US commitment to de-escalation and diplomacy in Iraq.
I think the weekend's fighting in Qusaybeh must have come as a shock to the US commanders there. Somehow some of those "sneaky" (or should we just say well organized?) insurgents from Fallujah and Ramadi had managed to spirit themselves 150 miles to the west and launch a fairly large-scale ambush there. Despite Gen. Myers' huffing and puffing about a possible Syrian role in it, it seems there wasn't one-- though Qusaybah is right there near the Syrian border.
In addition, the insurgents' ability to render many vital roads unsafe-- allied of course to the fact that the drivers of many of the U.S. military supply convoys aren't members of the military and therefore can't be forced to drive when they are scared to--means that many U.S. forward units have come close to facing shortages.
Logistics, logistics, logistics. The Brits--as I've mentioned before here, more than once-- should have remembered that this is what can really stymie western military adventures in Iraq.
So now, as I understand it, there's a chance of a ceasefire in Fallujah. Linked to commitments from the city fathers that the insurgents will hand over their "heavy weapons", and that they'll "carry on looking" for the people who carried out the original late-March ambush that killed the four U.S. "contractors". Politically, this represents quite a substantial climbdown by the Americans. But I don't sense any belligerent drumbeat inside the U.S. urging Bremer and Co. to hold out for the handover of the killers of the four. Which is good.
There also seems to be the possibility of a climbdown in and around Najaf. Far less bellicosity about the need to "capture or kill" Moqtada al-Sadr.
So I'm hoping, hoping, that having gone right up to the precipice of a broad collapse of its military positions inside Iraq, the Bush administration will now sensibly climb down considerably further. The main focus now should be on a new and workable Security Council resolution that truly puts the U.N. in the driver's seat and gives it the tools to succeed. For that to happen, the Bushies would have to eat some serious crow (from the point of view of the neocon hardliners). But the rest of us shouldn't gloat and start screeching "I told you so!" If they do the right thing, we should support that.
This evening, on the BBC t.v. newsfeed we get, no less a figure than Harlan Ullmann-- the author of "Shock and Awe" himself--was on, saying that the administration had been needlessly escalatory and needed to quickly find a way to de-escalate. Amazing. Let's hope he represents something big and meaningful there...
Meanwhile, it is already quite clear that after the Intifada Wataniya in Fallujah, Ramadi, and the Shi-ite areas, nothing in Iraq will ever again be remotely the same as Bremer and Co. had planned it to be. All those ultra-expensive "reconstruction" plans... all those intricate political plans... none of them are at all feasible between now and June 30. What will June 30 be? The day of handover to the U.N., if anything. It'll be interesting to see what else will happen between now and then.
I hope you're right.
Helena, I hope you're right too. But I've come to expect the worst from this administration and its inability to learn from its mistakes. It's most obvious characteristic is to plow ahead with its plan without pausing to review results, make adjustments to avoid future miscalculation and weigh the long-term consequences of its actions.
I am not as hopeful as you that the administration will avoid a full-blown military confrontation with Sunni and Shiite insurgents before the June 30 turnover date. It just isn't in their genes to do so.
I believe, for this administration, the War in Iraq is a "reality" TV show. It believes--sometimes with reason--that it can control the situation militarily, so it chooses battles for political capital at home. Iraqis don't vote in our elections.
"But the rest of us shouldn't gloat and start screeching "I told you so!" If they do the right thing, we should support that."
How would this be accomplished while simultaneously holding the Bushies accountable for their mess? Hasn't this administration been given enough of a pass?
These aren't children we need to reinforce. They are powerful officials that need to be replaced.
It's looking increasingly worse over there:
http://villagevoice.com/issues/0416/vest.php
Link courtesy of Juan Cole.
Climbing down in Iraq?
No such luck. The marines have tried 3 times to take the town and failed and just tried to drop people off today before 2 choppers were shot down. They are running out of supplies and that is what is causing the problems. The Iraqi's have learned a very hard and long lesson. Do not surrender and do not give up. They tried that before and got slaughtered, So have everyone else.
I dont believe the Iraqi's can win, they have no support from anyone. But they sure can give you a bloody nose. Thats a lot better than than laying down to die.
Another thing, Why would someone shoot you in the leg and then come with a knife and cut your throat? Or shoot you in the stomach and let you lay there screaming and dying?
I would consider those people as savages.